The Most Important Question About the 2020 Election David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". 4. Most bellwether counties were slightly Democratic-leaning in 2008 and Republican leaning in 2012. running an event, collecting and distributing information, Canvassing: Alarming Results in Multiple States, Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, The Curious Case of the 2020 Voting Rate Blowouts, How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, The Counties Where Votes and Party Registrations Don't Align, Investigating the Large Democrat Vote Increases, USEIPs Election Fraud Data Analytics Guide, 2000 Mules: Video Evidence of Ballot Trafficking, Voting Machines Lacking EAC Accreditation, List of Legislators Supporting Election Audits, Forensic Analysis of Mesa County Machine Images, A Vote Trafficking Parable, by David K. Clements, Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, View the County & Local Organizing Playbook, Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel, Bellwether counties are not just statistical curiosities, The odds of 21 (out of 22) of these counties getting it wrong is, We have identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY. Learn about the anomalies, strange events, and eyewitness accounts surrounding the 2020 election. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? The divisions were everywhere. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . 25 battleground counties to watch - POLITICO North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. Other counties to watch: Also watch Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre). Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! It also backed Gov. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. 10. Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. Lets find a coin, and flip it. For Trump to win, he needs to flip a place like Racine, which went for Obama narrowly. "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania . Their concerns are real. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. Trump won the other 18 counties. That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. Trump won 18 of the 19. More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. Just a tiny fraction of them truly matter. Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. In this section we will introduce a new concept: The swing county. there are signs that the progress he made there in 2016 winning the county by about 1.5 percentage points after Obama carried it by 16 points . 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Yet Donald Trump received 10 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016 -- and lost. Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. In 2012, it had nearly half a million more voters in it than every other county in the state combined. 11. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. . It's true that the report first showed Biden at 477 counties andTrump at 2,497 counties, though ithas since been updated to showBiden at 509 andTrump at 2,547. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). Ryan Matsumoto is a contributing analyst for Inside Elections. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. A county that voted for the winning party in 1992 (Democrat), 2000 (Republican), 2008 (Democrat) and 2016 (Republican), irrespective of how they voted at the other elections. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. Yes, another Hillsborough! There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. That report was issued on Nov. 12. Thank you for supporting our journalism. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. When is Eurovision and how do you get tickets? Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. Team up with others in your region, and help out by And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. Much of the rest of the state is rural and ruby red Republican. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. In the past, says Mrs Day-Baker, the presence of conservative Democrats and split-ticket voting - choosing a Republican nominee for president but Democratic Party candidates as local representatives, or vice versa - were both commonplace. Racine County2016 primary winners: Sanders, Cruz, Latest voter registration totals: 113,599No party registration. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. Profiled by BBC News weeks before the 2020 election, locals said voters' political identities weren't always defined in strict party terms and that people would regularly pivot between parties from one election cycle to the next. Unfortunately, Github (now a Microsoft company) terminated this website's account on 13 Jan 2021 for "spreading misinformation", a violation of their terms, although no specific examples were given. These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. Mike Pence, could marshal his supporters to cross the border and provide support. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. These key counties are telling the story of America's shifting The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Cruz2012: Obama 53%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 101,967Republicans: 75,145Unaffiliated:65,344Libertarian: 1,022. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. Increased political polarization is another reason why fewer counties are consistently indicative of presidential results in recent years. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. Putting names to archive photos, The children left behind in Cuba's mass exodus, In photos: India's disappearing single-screen cinemas. The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania | OZY Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. 7. And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. Here's why. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". We looked at the most recent swing counties and determined how many of the strongest Democrat voting counties in 2008, swung back to the Democrat party in 2020. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. Bellwether counties in swing states show that the demographic gulf between the Democrats' more urban coalition and the Republicans' base of rural and blue collar whites is poised to grow ever . And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. Twitter Twitter Just one Clallam County, Washington voted for President Joe Biden. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. 2020 Election (1210) In communities . History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. How could 16 out of 17 bellwether counties predict a Trump win - Quora It came close to reflecting the statewide vote in 2012. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). ET. Shield icon by Freepik from flaticon.com. Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. our Gitlab account where you can Biden win ends streak for US election bellwethers - The Mercury News (Sorry, not sorry.) More: Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa Obama won them, Trump won them, Biden lost them. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 55%-43%. Watauga has gone for. Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. These are the bellwether counties. Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. Hamilton is ringed by heavily Republican Butler, Warren and Clermont counties, and it shares a border with Indiana, which is giving hope to GOP officials who think Trumps running mate, Indiana Gov. What, if anything, did we miss? Bellwether counties: Where in America do voters nail it? . But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. Obama won both with 56 percent; if Trump is making them competitive, that could mean Iowa goes his way. | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. While local Republican Party candidates enjoyed a bump in local media coverage for opening a new headquarters last summer, Democrats were facing vastly different circumstances. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via He is based in San Francisco and has also written for NBC News and The Hill. It very closely mirrors the rest of the state demographically (with a slightly higher Asian population), but it is far more educated.

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