The poll was conducted for The Sunday Times over the past week as a review for the Scottish Prison Service found that the process of admitting transgender people to prisons should be improved in the wake of the Isla Bryson case. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely support Scotland staying part of the UK' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming independent' what number would you consider yourself to be?". YouGov poll, reported in the Telegraph on 31 Jan 2023Full results, The Times poll, conducted by YouGov, reported on 21 Jan 2023, Wings Over Scotland/The Times poll, conducted by Panelbase, reported on 19 Dec 2022: Why do SNP voters hate women?, The Times poll, conducted by Panelbase, reported on 17 Dec 2022, The Times poll, reported on 16 Oct 2022Full results. More Scots are seeing the reality of SNP rule. Between January 2015 and December 2022 over 230 polls have been published and recorded in the main table. Since devolution, the annual Scottish Social Attitudes Survey has contained a question on independence. The result of an IndyRef today 2 March 2023. Full question: Nicola Sturgeon says the SNP will fight the next General Election as a de facto referendum on independence. ), Lord Ashcroft poll, reported in Holyrood on 13 Feb 2023Full results. In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, one in which the Scottish government took responsibility for the handling of the virus in Scotland, there were signs of sustained backing for Scottish independence for the first time. We also may change the frequency you receive our emails from us in order to keep you up to date and give you the best relevant information possible. In early March 2023, the Labour Party continue to consolidate their substantial lead over the Conservatives, one which is now trending at 21%.. Polling averages extrapolated in the 3 weeks to 2 March place Labour on 47.3%, the Conservatives on 26.8%, and the Liberal Democrats on 9.3%. All Rights Reserved. YouGov: The Times: GB 2,003 23% 46%: 9% 4% 7% 8% 3%. This page was last edited on 4 March 2023, at 10:18. However after the Scottish National Party (SNP) formed a minority government in Edinburgh, support for Scottish independence started to grow again after 2007. YouGov surveyed 1,043 Tory members and found that 60% said they'd vote for Truss, compared to 26% who opted for Sunak, the former chancellor whose resignation helped precipitate Johnson's . In Wales, Plaid Cymru is currently on course to lose one seat to Labour. Poll Analysis: YouGov 17th - 20th of February 2023 - Ballot Box Scotland With the Russian invasion of Ukraine heavily dominating the UK news agenda, the position of the UKs political parties became somewhat becalmed during the spring on 2022 with no notable movements in the polls. By the time that the SNP under Alex Salmond had won an outright majority at Holyrood in 2011, support for Scottish independence had started to nudge back up towards 40%. However, there was even worse news for the SNP in the other new poll released by Redfield and Wilton Strategies on Thursday night and conducted on November 2-3. UK PM hopeful Sunak would have edge over Truss with swing voters - poll Similarly, the above analysis has been conducted based on the existing United Kingdom constituency boundaries. Which party will you vote for? In the first three weeks of her premiership, the Labour lead over the Conservatives extended to 11%. ", Data in More than 5 years is amalgamation of 5 to 10 years and more than 10 years, Question asked was "Should the Scottish Government be allowed to hold an independence referendum next year? Indeed between October 2020 and January 2021, the two major parties were running neck and neck. Ron DeSantis now leads former President Donald Trump by 5 percentage points in the race for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. Under this unlikely but not impossible scenario, the Electoral Calculus seat predictor says Labour would end up with 37 Scottish MPs, the SNP would have 10, the Tories seven and the Lib Dems five. This drop off appears to dovetail with a growth in support in the opinion polls for the Scottish labour party under Anas Sarwar. At 64 per cent, those respondents most likely to lean towards voting Green at the next election were also most likely to say that they support the GRR bill and that the UK Governments veto was wrong. Humza Yousaf takes the lead as SNP members swing behind Nicola Sturgeon's man, The 'worst health secretary in the history of devolution' is just ahead of his rivals in the SNP leadership contest, although a third of Nat members still don't know who to vote for, Ian Blackford 'looking forward' to end of police probe into SNP's 'murky' finances as he dodges Peter Murrell question. Scottish independence poll: do people in Scotland want to be Data collected at regular intervals about or relating to Voting Intention, tracking changes over time. Under the current polling, Labour is on course to win seats in parts of the country where it has always been a distant spectator, such as both Bournemouth constituencies in Dorset, Macclesfield in Cheshire, Aylesbury in Buckingham, Southend East in Essex, Weston Super Mare, and Bromley and Chiselhurst in south east London. Dates. The YouGov survey for the Sunday Times of 1,088 Scottish voters shows support for the party dropped from 50% to 44% in the Holyrood constituency vote and from 40% to 36% in the regional list,. Copyright 2023 YouGov PLC. tax was introduced a year early in Scotland by the UK government. The new offer will see teachers getting a 12.3% increase by April 2023, and it will rise to 14% by 2024. The leader of the SNP has insisted her party was "not divided". The latest YouGov poll, of 1,088 voters in Scotland from January 23 to January 26, found that Sturgeons approval rating had slipped into negative territory, from +7 to -4, since October. Click here to sign-in and subscribe via a link sent to your email. The SNP is on 30 per cent, the Tories on 15 per cent and the Lib Dems on 11, with others on 3 per cent. Pollsters showed that Liberal Democrat voting intention during most of this Parliament has been constant at around the 9% mark with only temporary uplifts above this point. Poll tracker: how will the SNP fare in Scotland's May elections? 48 hour snow warning for Scotland as Met Office predicts an icy start to spring, Don't put your winter woollies away yet! Yougov (February 20) which placed the Yes side on 46.2% and the No side on 53.8%, post adjusting for undecided voters. In 1997, the Yes side surpassed 40% in the polls for the first time. The latest YouGov poll, of 1,088 voters in Scotland from January 23 to January 26, found that Sturgeon's approval rating had slipped into negative territory, from +7 to -4, since October. The table also lists some events that may have impacted on polling returns, including the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, the Covid pandemic in Scotland and party leadership changes. Ben Walker is a senior data journalist at the New Statesman and writes extensively about elections and UK public opinion. Rishi Sunak fails to win back Conservative support in Wales, poll The TLE shop is also now open, with all profits going to supporting our work. Redfield and Wilton (5 February) which placed Labour on 50%, the Conservatives on 24%, and the Liberal Democrts on 10%. The Boundary Commission is currently in the midst of a review designed to better equalise constituency sizes. : medium.com. (Excluding Dont Knows the margin is just shy of 70/30, very similar to the margin by which people in polls oppose self-ID generally. In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, one in which the Scottish government took responsibility for the handling of the virus in Scotland, there were signs of sustained backing for Scottish independence for the first time. A YouGov poll shows 56% of Scots support the . Where does the public really stand on womens rights and proposals to reform the Gender Recognition Act? Support for Scottish independence nudged up to 50% for the first time in 2019, soon after Boris Johnson became prime minister. Polling, even using the same question, can show systematic differences between different polling organisations and sponsors. At the heart of our company is a global online community, where millions of people and thousands of political, cultural and commercial organizations engage in a continuous conversation about their beliefs, behaviours and brands. In the latest YouGov voting intention poll, the Conservatives have closed their gap with Labour to just four points. Nicola Sturgeon Expected To Resign As Scottish First Minister Today But Why? This includes a majority of those who agree the people should be freely able to express their transgender identity. Question asked. @BritainElects. The Conservatives continued to record significant poll leads over Labour almost consistently throughout 2020 and 2021, with only a brief interlude in autumn 2020 where this narrowed. New projections based on YouGov polling suggest the Conservative Party could be reduced to the UKs fourth-biggest party at the next election. Charities & not-for-profit. The latest survey from YouGov has put Labour on 46% and the . Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election - Wikipedia Polling changes expose a chink in the Conservatives' electoral armour Polling includes only those that explicitly ask how the responder would vote in a hypothetical referendum on the United Kingdom rejoining the European Union, rather than repeating the remain/leave question of the 2016 referendum. YouGov polled a representative sample of 1,081 Welsh voters, aged 16+, between February 3 and February 7 for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University. By clicking 'Sign in and Subscribe' you agree to us subscribing you to our newsletter in accordance with our Privacy Policy and Legal Notice.Emails, which may be sent daily or less frequently, may include marketing elements. Scottish NHS staff reject latest pay offer and threaten 'unprecedented' strike action, Nicola Sturgeons SNP government blocking Scotlands 'success in the UK', says Sir Keir Starmer, Met Police in London urged to investigate the SNP's Covid 'crime of the century', Campaigners believe longstanding failures in the Scottish healthcare regulation were exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic, leading to up to 30,000 avoidable deaths and they won't stop until they get justice, Prince Harry feels 'stuck' with Meghan Markle in America as biographer claims he wants them to come home, The Duke and Duchess of Sussex quit the UK in 2020 but observers reckon the move has not worked out for them, Tax authorities 'destroyed' Rangers, former chairman Charles Green tells court, Green also spoke of his dislike for Craig Whyte, telling the court 'if we had a collection in this court we would have more money from that than Craig Whyte would ever have', Prince Harry set to lose Dukedom as King's eviction is block on him 'deputising', More rejection for Prince Harry as experts reckon his UK eviction is a tactical move to stop him from being able to step into Royal roles in the event of King Charles's absence, Nicola Sturgeon and Peter Murrell's joint bank account is key to resignation, says Private Eye, The outgoing SNP leader and her chief executive husband are urged to answer the question about whether or not they have a joint bank account, as the magazine says Operation Branchform was the 'game-changer' behind shock resignation, Teaching strikes reprieve in doubt as union blasts 14% pay rise as 'paltry'. Majority of people support NEU teacher strikes, YouGov poll finds Dorset Live 14:59 6-Feb-23. "If the SNP did campaign on the next General Election as a 'de facto' second Scottish independence referendum, which of the following parties do you think you would vote for, or would you vote for another party?". The end of 2021, showed how quickly politics can change. Savanta ComRes said that the poll result "should not be treated as a headline Savanta ComRes voting intention". Scottish election 2021: Sturgeon says SNP 'not a divided party' The YouGov survey for the Sunday Times of 1,088 Scottish voters shows support for the party dropped from 50 per cent to 44 per cent in the Holyrood constituency vote and from 40 per cent to 36. Following a lull in political activity over Christmas 2021, the Conservatives appeared to be recovering in early 2022, clawing back approximately half of the poll losses that they had seen before the festive period. Ballot Box Scotland - Democracy in Detail A majority of Scots back same-sex marriage, according to the most detailed survey of public opinion since MSPs began moves to change the law. This feed updates continuously 24/7 so check back regularly. Voting intention in the United Kingdom 2017-2023. In the early part of the 2010s, with a Conservative coalition government in Westminster, and with the SNP focused on holding an indepdence referendum in Scotland, support for Scottish independence grew further. Question Asked "Imagine the next Westminster Election was a de facto referendum on Scottish Independence If the Westminster Election was taking place tomorrow, and there was a candidate from all political parties standing in your constituency, which party do you think you would vote for? Latest opinion polls news, commentary and analysis, including political and voting intention polls, by polling companies including YouGov, Ipsos MORI and Survation. Data collected from extensive surveys and snap polls about or relating to Scottish independence. Don't miss out! * Prediction from Electoral Calculus using the figures from the latest YouGov opinion poll. Our mission is to hold the powerful to account. Truss Extends Lead Over Sunak in Race to Lead UK, Poll Shows The latest Panelbase survey for The Sunday Time shows those aged 16 to 35 back independence by 62 per cent, compared to 48 per cent for Scottish voters as a whole. % 28 45 9 4 1 3 7 2 Con Lab Lib Dem SNP Our first Tory members poll since the final two candidates were decided shows Liz Truss with a 24pt . Latest general election voting intention opinion polls - Mark Pack While polls should always be treated with caution, Labour supporters have celebrated the latest figures. Latest Opinion Polls - The Result Of A General Election Today The commissions interim findings most notably increase the number of seats in the South East of England (+7), London (+3), East Anglia (+3), and the South West (+3), at the expense of Wales (-8), the West Midlands (-3), the North East -3), the North West of England (-3), and Scotland (-2). The previous YouGov covered the 23rd - 26th of January. YouGov poll reveals vast majority (93%) of Brits don't wear real animal Get the latest news from the Express straight to your inbox. , in which Scotland voted to remain in the EU. Exclusive: Scottish Labour blasted the Scottish Government for their inaction in trying to get rid of dangerous Grenfell-styling cladding on buildings across the country. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous Scottish Parliament election, held . Something went wrong, please try again later. On 23 November 2022, the UK Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to unilaterally hold an independence referendum without the consent of the Westminster Parliament. Nicola Sturgeon expected to resign as Scottish First Minister today But why? Labour surges to record lead in polls as Truss insists mini-budget did With plans for the establishment of a Scottish parliament in Holyrood by the Blair government in the late 1990s, support for Scottish independence rose once again. All Rights Reserved. State of the Nation. Pollster. Subscribe to our email alert of the day's top stories from the UK and around the world. Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge public attitudes to independence. Scottish Opinion Polls Recent Scottish opinion polls. ", 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill, COVID-19 vaccination in the United Kingdom, Opinion polling for the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/docs/uksc-2022-0098-judgment.pdf, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence&oldid=1142782908, Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK and the European Union, Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK but part of the European Union, Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has some taxation powers, Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has no taxation powers. Rather than drop back after IndyRef1, and with the SNP remaining in government in Edinburgh under new first minister Nicola Sturgeon, support for Scottish independence continued to rise. What next for Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour left? Access the latest polls, survey results and articles . Results are limited to only those who state they will definitely vote. Respondents saying they would prefer Scotland to vote for or against independence have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents saying they "don't mind either way" have been assigned as undecided. Sponsors of pro-Obi opinion polls creating grounds for post-election violence. Fewer than three in ten (29 per cent) respondents said they supported the [Gender Recognition Reform] bill, but more than half (54 per cent) said they opposed it. Most polling companies listed here are members of the . We do not charge or put articles behind a paywall. Scottish independence: yes campaign gets poll boost The latest opinion polling from outlet YouGov shows respondents relatively downbeat on the state of the US economy over the next six months, anticipating that inflation will rise, there will be further interest rate hikes, and gas prices will increase. A report released in 2017, entitled From Indyref1 to Indyref2? Does Douglas Alexanders comeback herald the return of Labours Blairites? Crucially for the Union, the SNP would be some distance off a majority share if the election was to be regarded as a 'de facto' referendum on independence, as Nicola Sturgeon has suggested. A new opinion poll has found that support for the Tories in Wales is in freefall. Inside Labour's battle to retake Scotland as party warned not to 'count chickens too soon', Public mental health is the true measure of political success. A new poll published by YouGov Tuesday shows that Sunak would lose to any of his three remaining rivals among Tory members in a final two-way round of votes. Some organisations have chosen to commission polls that adopt the remain / leave formulation that was used in the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum. It remains to be seen how support for independence will pan out now Rishi Sunak has become prime minister, King Charles III has succeeded Elizabeth II, and as Nicola Sturgeon steps down as first minister. Rather than experience a new prime ministerial bounce, in September 2022, the picture was not positive for Liz Truss. That opinion poll lead so far appears unaffected by Nicola Sturgeons announcement that she was standing down as first minister in mid February 2023. With the Conservatives polling over 50%, this lead briefly surpassed 20% at the beginning of the Covid pandemic in March and April 2020. Scottish independence polls & surveys | YouGov The other tables reflect different ways questions around Independence can be asked, they may produce different results. Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If another Scottish Independence Referendum were held today, how would you vote?" Support for Welsh independence at its lowest level for three years, St Entering the summer, levels of Conservative support took a sudden 3% hit following the resignation of then health secretary, Matt Hancock, in June 2021. In the space of a month, support for the SNP in the next Scottish parliament election had fallen from 50 per cent to 44 per cent in the constituency vote, and from 40 per cent to 36 per cent in the regional vote and from 43 per cent to 42 per cent for Westminster.

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